Luckiest and Unluckiest Baseball Teams - All Time

Being the geek that I claim to be, my analysis of the Orioles 2012 season yesterday seemed incomplete.  I said I couldn't find the all time statistics to know if the O's really are one of the 20 luckiest teams in history.

So, I searched the web until I found the statistics I needed to do the calculations myself.  I also calculated the expected number of wins using two different exponents in the formula.  The original formula uses 2 as the exponent, while a revised version uses an exponent of 1.83, which is what I used here.

For more on the formula, go here.

As I expected, this year's Orioles team is one of the 20 luckiest teams of all time.  I was surprised to see them 5th overall though.  The first place entry is kind of amazing - a team outscored by almost 100 runs in a season, and they still finished above .500.  When I looked at that season in a bit more detail, I saw a team that lost by a lot quite often, but managed to win the closer games.  Sort of like this year's Orioles.

It is interesting to note that 6 of the top 20 lucky seasons have occurred in the 21st century.

Year	Team	Games	Wins	Losses	Scored	Allowed	ExpPct	ExpWins	Diff
1905	Detroit Tigers	154	79	74	512	604	0.425	65.4	13.6
2004	New York Yankees	162	101	61	897	808	0.548	88.7	12.3
2008	Los Angeles Angels	162	100	62	765	697	0.542	87.9	12.1
1984	New York Mets	162	90	72	652	676	0.483	78.3	11.7
2012	Baltimore Orioles	149	85	64	653	663	0.493	73.5	11.5
1954	Brooklyn Dodgers	154	92	62	778	740	0.523	80.5	11.5
1970	Cincinnati Reds	162	102	60	775	681	0.559	90.5	11.5
1972	New York Mets	156	83	73	528	578	0.459	71.6	11.4
1924	Brooklyn Robins	154	92	62	717	679	0.525	80.8	11.2
2005	Arizona Diamondbacks	162	77	85	696	856	0.406	65.8	11.2
2007	Arizona Diamondbacks	162	90	72	712	732	0.487	78.9	11.1
1943	Boston Braves	153	68	85	465	612	0.377	57.7	10.3
1961	Cincinnati Reds	154	93	61	710	653	0.538	82.9	10.1
1932	Pittsburgh Pirates	154	86	68	701	711	0.494	76.0	10.0
1955	Kansas City Athletics	155	63	91	638	911	0.343	53.1	9.9
1997	San Francisco Giants	162	90	72	784	793	0.495	80.2	9.8
2009	Seattle Mariners	162	85	77	640	692	0.464	75.2	9.8
1917	St. Louis Cardinals	154	82	70	531	567	0.470	72.4	9.6
1977	Baltimore Orioles	161	97	64	719	653	0.544	87.6	9.4
1936	St. Louis Cardinals	155	87	67	795	794	0.501	77.6	9.4

A few things stand out in this list.  The 2004 Yankees are the only team in baseball history to lose a playoff series after leading 3 games to none.  But, if they had won the 89 games they were expected to win, the Red Sox would have won the division, and perhaps the Red Sox would not have won their first title since 1918.

The 1970 Reds team went to the World Series, where they lost 4-1 to a 108 win Orioles team.  The 1972 Mets didn't go to the World Series, which saw the A's beat the Reds, but in 1973, the Mets did go to the series, where they also lost to the A's.

It's amazing to think how bad the 1943 Braves should have been.  And the 1955 Athletics should have lost 100 games.

The 1961 Reds did go to the World Series, but they were beaten easily by the Yankees, who were led by Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle, who combined for 115 home runs that season.

The 1936 Cardinals were two years removed from their 1934 Gashouse Gang championship, but in 1936, they finished 5 games behind the Giants.

Not one team in this list won a World Series.  The Reds, twice, are the only team in this list to have even gone to the world series.

And, given their overall statistics, I do not expect this year's Orioles to make it to the world series.  But, in short series, anything can happen.  The 1988 Dodgers were clearly the worst team in the playoffs, yet they beat a much better Mets team in the NLCS and came within a Mark McGwire home run of sweeping the A's in the series.  The great thing about baseball is that anything can happen.


For the sake of completeness, here are the unluckiest teams of all time according to the same formula:

Year	Team	Games	Wins	Losses	Scored	Allowed	ExpPct	ExpWins	Diff
1993	New York Mets	162	59	103	672	744	0.454	73.5	-14.5
1905	Chicago Cubs	155	92	61	667	442	0.680	105.4	-13.4
1986	Pittsburgh Pirates	162	64	98	663	700	0.475	77.0	-13.0
1907	Cincinnati Reds	156	66	87	526	519	0.506	79.0	-13.0
1911	Pittsburgh Pirates	155	85	69	744	557	0.629	97.6	-12.6
1935	Boston Braves	153	38	115	575	852	0.327	50.1	-12.1
1984	Pittsburgh Pirates	162	75	87	615	567	0.537	87.0	-12.0
1975	Houston Astros	162	64	97	664	711	0.469	75.9	-11.9
1906	Cleveland Naps	157	89	64	663	481	0.643	100.9	-11.9
1905	St. Louis Browns	156	54	99	512	608	0.422	65.8	-11.8
1967	Baltimore Orioles	161	76	85	654	592	0.545	87.8	-11.8
1937	Cincinnati Reds	155	56	98	612	706	0.435	67.4	-11.4
1904	Cleveland Naps	154	86	65	647	482	0.632	97.3	-11.3
1939	St. Louis Browns	156	43	111	733	1035	0.347	54.2	-11.2
1999	Kansas City Royals	161	64	97	856	921	0.467	75.1	-11.1
1924	St. Louis Cardinals	154	65	89	740	750	0.494	76.1	-11.1
1946	Philadelphia Athletics	155	49	105	529	680	0.387	60.0	-11.0
2006	Cleveland Indians	162	78	84	870	782	0.549	88.9	-10.9
1919	Washington Senators	142	56	84	533	570	0.469	66.6	-10.6
1993	San Diego Padres	162	61	101	679	772	0.442	71.5	-10.5

Not surprisingly, none of these teams won a world series, or even went to the series.  And, in 1904, there was no series, but Cleveland in 1904 finished only 1.5 games behind the Boston Americans (later the Red Sox), so they clearly should have been AL champions that year.