Thursday, September 20, 2012

Luckiest and Unluckiest Baseball Teams - All Time

Being the geek that I claim to be, my analysis of the Orioles 2012 season yesterday seemed incomplete.  I said I couldn't find the all time statistics to know if the O's really are one of the 20 luckiest teams in history.

So, I searched the web until I found the statistics I needed to do the calculations myself.  I also calculated the expected number of wins using two different exponents in the formula.  The original formula uses 2 as the exponent, while a revised version uses an exponent of 1.83, which is what I used here.

For more on the formula, go here.

As I expected, this year's Orioles team is one of the 20 luckiest teams of all time.  I was surprised to see them 5th overall though.  The first place entry is kind of amazing - a team outscored by almost 100 runs in a season, and they still finished above .500.  When I looked at that season in a bit more detail, I saw a team that lost by a lot quite often, but managed to win the closer games.  Sort of like this year's Orioles.

It is interesting to note that 6 of the top 20 lucky seasons have occurred in the 21st century.




















Year Team Games Wins Losses Scored Allowed ExpPct ExpWins Diff
1905 Detroit Tigers 154 79 74 512 604 0.425 65.4 13.6
2004 New York Yankees 162 101 61 897 808 0.548 88.7 12.3
2008 Los Angeles Angels 162 100 62 765 697 0.542 87.9 12.1
1984 New York Mets 162 90 72 652 676 0.483 78.3 11.7
2012 Baltimore Orioles 149 85 64 653 663 0.493 73.5 11.5
1954 Brooklyn Dodgers 154 92 62 778 740 0.523 80.5 11.5
1970 Cincinnati Reds 162 102 60 775 681 0.559 90.5 11.5
1972 New York Mets 156 83 73 528 578 0.459 71.6 11.4
1924 Brooklyn Robins 154 92 62 717 679 0.525 80.8 11.2
2005 Arizona Diamondbacks 162 77 85 696 856 0.406 65.8 11.2
2007 Arizona Diamondbacks 162 90 72 712 732 0.487 78.9 11.1
1943 Boston Braves 153 68 85 465 612 0.377 57.7 10.3
1961 Cincinnati Reds 154 93 61 710 653 0.538 82.9 10.1
1932 Pittsburgh Pirates 154 86 68 701 711 0.494 76.0 10.0
1955 Kansas City Athletics 155 63 91 638 911 0.343 53.1 9.9
1997 San Francisco Giants 162 90 72 784 793 0.495 80.2 9.8
2009 Seattle Mariners 162 85 77 640 692 0.464 75.2 9.8
1917 St. Louis Cardinals 154 82 70 531 567 0.470 72.4 9.6
1977 Baltimore Orioles 161 97 64 719 653 0.544 87.6 9.4
1936 St. Louis Cardinals 155 87 67 795 794 0.501 77.6 9.4

A few things stand out in this list.  The 2004 Yankees are the only team in baseball history to lose a playoff series after leading 3 games to none.  But, if they had won the 89 games they were expected to win, the Red Sox would have won the division, and perhaps the Red Sox would not have won their first title since 1918.

The 1970 Reds team went to the World Series, where they lost 4-1 to a 108 win Orioles team.  The 1972 Mets didn't go to the World Series, which saw the A's beat the Reds, but in 1973, the Mets did go to the series, where they also lost to the A's.

It's amazing to think how bad the 1943 Braves should have been.  And the 1955 Athletics should have lost 100 games.

The 1961 Reds did go to the World Series, but they were beaten easily by the Yankees, who were led by Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle, who combined for 115 home runs that season.

The 1936 Cardinals were two years removed from their 1934 Gashouse Gang championship, but in 1936, they finished 5 games behind the Giants.

Not one team in this list won a World Series.  The Reds, twice, are the only team in this list to have even gone to the world series.

And, given their overall statistics, I do not expect this year's Orioles to make it to the world series.  But, in short series, anything can happen.  The 1988 Dodgers were clearly the worst team in the playoffs, yet they beat a much better Mets team in the NLCS and came within a Mark McGwire home run of sweeping the A's in the series.  The great thing about baseball is that anything can happen.


For the sake of completeness, here are the unluckiest teams of all time according to the same formula:

Year Team Games Wins Losses Scored Allowed ExpPct ExpWins Diff
1993 New York Mets 162 59 103 672 744 0.454 73.5 -14.5
1905 Chicago Cubs 155 92 61 667 442 0.680 105.4 -13.4
1986 Pittsburgh Pirates 162 64 98 663 700 0.475 77.0 -13.0
1907 Cincinnati Reds 156 66 87 526 519 0.506 79.0 -13.0
1911 Pittsburgh Pirates 155 85 69 744 557 0.629 97.6 -12.6
1935 Boston Braves 153 38 115 575 852 0.327 50.1 -12.1
1984 Pittsburgh Pirates 162 75 87 615 567 0.537 87.0 -12.0
1975 Houston Astros 162 64 97 664 711 0.469 75.9 -11.9
1906 Cleveland Naps 157 89 64 663 481 0.643 100.9 -11.9
1905 St. Louis Browns 156 54 99 512 608 0.422 65.8 -11.8
1967 Baltimore Orioles 161 76 85 654 592 0.545 87.8 -11.8
1937 Cincinnati Reds 155 56 98 612 706 0.435 67.4 -11.4
1904 Cleveland Naps 154 86 65 647 482 0.632 97.3 -11.3
1939 St. Louis Browns 156 43 111 733 1035 0.347 54.2 -11.2
1999 Kansas City Royals 161 64 97 856 921 0.467 75.1 -11.1
1924 St. Louis Cardinals 154 65 89 740 750 0.494 76.1 -11.1
1946 Philadelphia Athletics 155 49 105 529 680 0.387 60.0 -11.0
2006 Cleveland Indians 162 78 84 870 782 0.549 88.9 -10.9
1919 Washington Senators 142 56 84 533 570 0.469 66.6 -10.6
1993 San Diego Padres 162 61 101 679 772 0.442 71.5 -10.5

Not surprisingly, none of these teams won a world series, or even went to the series.  And, in 1904, there was no series, but Cleveland in 1904 finished only 1.5 games behind the Boston Americans (later the Red Sox), so they clearly should have been AL champions that year.

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